By Bill Holter
I intended to write this yesterday but was still buried from response to last Thursday’s article. My wife teased me, she told me she had not seen me work like that since I retired from brokerage back in 2006. From Friday morning through yesterday I burned my cell battery down 5 times and was stuck several times plugged in and talking with a 3 ft. chord attached! I thank everyone for the huge response and reiterate this is a window that when closes will probably never open again.
This is a very important week. We had an IMF meeting over the weekend and an extremely bland “communique”. I am sure much more went on behind the scenes than this “don’t worry be happy” statement.
China has their 29th Communist Congress the 18th and 19th this week. For sure it will contain pomp and circumstance as they install new and old leaders but the highlight will be their “5 year plan” discussions. We may (most probably) not be privy to the true core to the plan and only offered public tidbits for view but we will see.
We can look back at the last five years and see China has readied herself to assume leadership for the world in many if not most areas previously lead by the US. They have set up credit facilities, a clearing system alternative to SWIFT, trade deals all over the world especially including the Middle East and other commodity rich areas. (And amassed a huge hoard of gold). They have also cozied up to Russia in many ways including militarily. We have also seen several instances where US Naval vessels may have been compromised technologically. In fact, I understand the Fitzgerald will have new electronics installed by Lockheed Martin. The main supporter of the U.S. dollar (the military) may have been tested publicly and only understood by those watching closely?
The point is this, China is “ready”. They can now at this point begin to “pull the trigger”. Whether it is one big trigger or many smaller triggers I do not know. (A betting man would wager many small triggers as the Chinese are a very polite society). I also do not know if one of the smaller triggers creates a domino effect but I suspect so. Do not mistake this, China does have huge leverage and imbedded fraud as does the West. The biggest difference as I have stressed for over two years is China actually created “stuff” whereas the West took their plundered spoils and “ate” them. In other words, China has built out their infrastructure and actually has premade “ghost cities” ready to roll. The U.S. is left with 50-100 year old infrastructure, little manufacturing left and highly unfunded liabilities in pensions. The American party is over…
As I have maintained, the Chinese have an “out” in the case of imminent financial global collapse. They can simply mark up their gold holdings and fill the balance sheet black holes with appreciated gold. The U.S. cannot do this as gold has been leaked out for years and may not even be an asset at this point. We have received many questions regarding the supposed “Chinese oil contract, settled in yuan and backed by gold”. We also received an extreme amount of questions regarding Koos Jansen’s article calling this a “myth” First, if you recall when I first wrote about this, I suggested China would NEVER convert yuan into THEIR gold. Rather, they would take presented yuan and buy on the open markets including COMEX and LBMA (and expose their lack of inventory?). In this manner, they would simply be taking cash flows from the oil trade and using it as a way to break the “paper pricing” forced on physical markets by dollar hegemony.
Yes I know, “people can currently take dollars and buy gold, they can even take yuan and buy gold” already, so what the heck am I talking about? To this point it has not been a very good “life decision” to either accept non dollars for oil, OR to take your dollars and purchase gold…(ask Saddam and Mohamar about this)! Looking at this just under the surface, ANYONE who used a couple hundred million dollars (or God forbid MORE) to purchase gold would be “seen”. Do you see where I am going? They have, are and ALWAYS WILL be seen and known if they use dollars because of something called the SWIFT system. Conversely, should oil producers use their “yuan” to buy gold, the U.S. cannot track these trades because China’s clearing system will clear the trade!
Do you see the beauty of this? Oil producers using yuan instead of dollars will no longer fear buying gold because it can be done under cover of China’s clearing system. (I guess it should be asked, would a logical trade move toward some’s liability or toward something with no one’s liability? Said another way, ending up with gold is true “settlement” as opposed to owning a liability yet to be settled). In addition, a freely trading and much “higher” gold in fiat terms is something the Chinese would desire as they have amassed maybe 20,000 tons or more. This, opposed to something the U.S. would not want, no longer being a major holder of gold. One might argue the previous sentences but good luck with that because common sense, a pencil and napkin will suffice!
So no, any new Chinese oil contract will not be backed directly by gold. This would be complete insanity for the Chinese and a recipe to undo the hoard of gold they have so meticulously and methodically accumulated over time. Rather, they are creating an avenue where Mother Nature can direct capital flows freely (by choice of the owner) and without fear of U.S. retribution. I guess you can call this “de facto” backing the oil trade for yuan…with gold – by repealing the fear of doing so by holders of said yuan! This is cunning action by the Chinese and aligned in harmony with Mother Nature in my opinion. We will soon see…
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